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Dany in Round One
Submitted by Chin Rojas on Fri, 2006/07/21 - 15:24.
Piggybacking on something Chele John said earlier, and with full respect to Chele John, with whom I normally agree 99% of the time.
I am not so sure about a second round in the election. I think it would have gone two with Herty in the race, but Ortega might be able to pull it off in the first with 35%, Montealegre 22, Rizo 18, Mundo 8.
I think Montealegre is going to take one on the chin because Bolaños sucks so bad and Eduardo is status quo, which has got to go.
Either way, it is going to be interesting. I'm voting for Eden, the only true revolutionary in the lot, and a man crazy and bold enough to run this country.
Five years of President Eden would be a blast!
If Herty were still alive,
If Herty were still alive, I'd be much more confident of my second round opinion.
At best, the Sandinistas have 30 percent support in this country. The same goes for the traditional PLC. I think MRS is done. They've lost their candidate but I don't see that parties supporters jumping back into the Ortega camp. The big question is where will they go.
The oil thing with Venezuela, again in my opinion, doesn't mean much. The oil isn't here and it doesn't' look like it's coming any time soon. That's not going to matter much to the large majority of Sandinista voters who don't own cars...though they do ride buses once in a while. I think they have more basic concerns besides an oil game where oil never arrives in the first place.
It's become a political paper tiger where both sides use it to bash the other and Chavez doesn't lose a dime. Just helps his buddy Ortega stir things up a bit as part of his campaign bid.
I like Eden. He's very charismatic and a great guy to talk to but...he has no support inside the current government. If Bolaños couldn't get much done I see Eden getting even less.
Montealegre, to me, still seems to have the best shot in the long run...but only if it goes to a second round.
Ortega is doing and saying anything he can. Making up with the Catholic Church as well as several former "enemies" who, I think, see their own positions of power going away and figure jumping over the support Ortega will give them a little more time as "someone" in this country.
What is really weird is how Ortegas running mate, Jaime Morales, is the true owner of Ortega's current house! It was one of the Piñata homes and, for the life of me, I keep waiting for one of the local press to ask about it just to see what the guy says locally. How can a guy run for office as the Vice President to the man who stole his home?!?!?!
Oh year...I forgot...we're living in Nicaragua! -smile-
Here's a link to a Miami Herald article about it.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/14918514.htm?template=contentModule...
Comandante Cero.. aptly named.
"I like Eden. He's very charismatic and a great guy to talk to but...he has no support inside the current government. If Bolaños couldn't get much done I see Eden getting even less."
- Ok, Comandante Cero's a cool guy.. Unfortunately for him, as those that have actually followed his history (ie. myself) know, he has absolutely no credibility. Soon after taking over the national palace ('78) and becoming a revolutionary hero, el Comandante seemed disgusted with the way the rest of his treacherous group was running the country (indeed, he noted that they were running the country to the ground).. Thereafter, in 1984 & 1985, Pastora visited the large Nicaraguan communities in Los Angeles and Miami (my parents still have a check they gave for his cause- what happened with all of this $$, Comandante? Maybe he learned something from Humberto, Tomás, and Daniel), stating that the "FSLN was ruining the country" and had morphed the revolution's objective from one of love to one of avarice and greed (I don't doubt that the 'La Penca' incident in '84 had something to do with this). He even accepted money in 84' from the CIA to help fight the Bloody Shadow.
After clearly stating that he was against his former "compas," he was actually a board member for the FSLN's 2001 presidential candidate election committee (when Mr. Moclín was effectively defeated, yet somehow appeared on the ballot).
Comandante cero has 'cero' credibility, but lots of charisma.. Charisma alone, however, shouldn't merit a presidential bid. If this were the case, then maybe Edgard Tijerino from La Prensa should take a run at it!
Charisma and a nice watch
I agree he doesn't have the political gravitas to get anything done. I guess I didn't make that clear enough in my earlier post.
But he does still have that nice Rolex he got during the take over of the National Palace, that he keeps pawning, then buying back, when he gets low on cash! -smile-
:P
haha Yeah, I'm sure that watch has helped him alot.. Doesn't he have a fishing/tourism business now?
Tijerino has no charisma
Surrounding yourself with young women (reporters) doesn't make you charasmatic. Tijerino couldn't sell me a cup of coffee, and I love coffee.
It's in the eye of the beholder..
Charisma is a subjective term... To many, surrounding one's self with "young women (reporters)" when you're older than Moses is quite charismatic.. While he couldn't sell you a cup of coffee (indicative of an acquired taste, perhaps?), to many he would be akin to Maxwell House or Folgers.
"Para gustos se hicieron colores."
Cheers..
valid vote, not popular support
I agree with you, John, except remeber that Daniel needs 35% of the valid vote, not the overall population.
The Ortega vote will be at the polls on Nov. 5, so a low overall turnout favors Ortega's chances of winning in the first round.
If voter abstention were 40%, then Ortega's 30% public sympathy translates into a 50% win on Election Day. Voter abstention won't be that high, but the point is that Ortega's voters won't be among those who pull a no-show on election day.
If
Jaime's ex-house
Jaime Morales was asked about the house. I believe it was in a TV interview right after he was announced as the VP candidate. I also read more about it somewhere right after that. His response was that he had been compensated. They said "money" and he said no but there are other ways to be compensated and he was satisfied.
I believe that was all in the TV interview but in print he was asked if the compensation was in the form of the VP nomination and he said no, he didn't need the job or the money and accepted the nomination because he wanted to work toward unity or some equally useful political word. :-)
If I didn't live here this would make no sense. That is, the Ortega/Morales ticket just wouldn't "compute". But, external perceptions and internal perceptions seem very different. I see Nicaraguans really wanting to "get united". Somoza is gone and not coming back. The war of the 1980s (no matter who you blame) is gone and not coming back.
What will move Nicaragua forward is not big business nor is it Marxism. (And I can write a book on that sentence alone.) It will take some cooperation and I feel Nicaragua, if left without external agitation, is capable of seeing that and moving forward.
Now, someone is going to say "I don't trust Ortega". All I can say is that I don't trust politicians but I do trust the Nicaraguan people to recognize a problem and address it. Maybe, this time, we will get a chance to see.
Point well taken...
"Jaime Morales was asked about the house. I believe it was in a TV interview right after he was announced as the VP candidate. I also read more about it somewhere right after that. His response was that he had been compensated. They said "money" and he said no but there are other ways to be compensated and he was satisfied."
- I recall this interview.. I don't recall him stating that he was compensated (that may be the case, however), though I do know that he stated that he was a man that didn't hold grudges and one that wanted to show that Nicaragua needed a change, one "toward unity or some equally useful political word."
"Now, someone is going to say "I don't trust Ortega". All I can say is that I don't trust politicians but I do trust the Nicaraguan people to recognize a problem and address it. Maybe, this time, we will get a chance to see."
- I agree, no politician's trustworthy; some, however, are at least better at faking it than others. I personally don't trust my people's ability to recognize a problem and to address it.. Why? If they could, Daniel wouldn't fill plazas like he does and he wouldn't get a single vote. Come November, however, I hope that the Nicaraguan presidential trend continues; this is, Daniel's favorite to win the election and fails at the last minute.. for the fourth time.
My prediction track record is not the best
My predicition record, when it comes to who will get elected President of Nicaragua, is not one hundred percent. At present it's at fifty percent. -smile-
I remember laughing several months before the last election when someone wondered aloud about Bolaños and his chances of winning. "NO WAY", I said. "How could anyone vote for Arnoldo's V.P.?" Well...we now know...but it did turn out better for the country when Bolaños turned on Gordo.
Maybe the same will happen this time, for the long term good of the country.
Most agree the Sandinistas have thirty percent support in this country. The PLC has another thirty. Of course both are close to the needed 35 percent mark. Both parties are fractured, even with Herty gone. How the oil from Chavez plays in all this, if at all, has yet to be seen. To me, it's still just a political "what if" since no oil has been delivered and I can't help but wonder how much that oil really means to the average Sandinista voter...other than most use buses to travel. I'd think they'd have more immediate concerns which have a more direct impact on their lives, like jobs, education and health care.
I agree with fyl about politicians...no matter where they happen to be standing on the planet! -smile-
i think ortega will win.....
the promise of chavez's oil would do the trick. your money for nothing and your chicks for free.
:)
Just like it did the trick in Peru and Mexico. Who knows, maybe Nicaraguan votes are cheaper than their Peruvian or Mexican counterparts. :D
Ummmmm
Actually...it did not work in Mexico.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) lost even if it was by a rather small margin. -smile-