Predictions: CIA vs. "ordinary folk"
Well, it really isn't about the CIA in particular but about the concept that a group of ordinary people can be better than the experts at predicting things. It's interesting as are the comments.
An NPR blog offers up the article. The project is an experiment that seems to have some pretty interesting results.
For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.
According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.