Honduran election results

The Real News Network talks about how the election went down.


More at The Real News

"Not well" sounds like the reality.

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More explicit article

An article in Truth Out looks specifically at irregularities in El Paraiso. It shows some amazing election results, information from election observers (who weren't allowed to observe) and possible drug trafficking connections.

While Hernandez won with 35% of the vote nationwide,

n El Paraíso, a city of 14,000 that sits right near Honduras’ border with Guatemala, Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party secured an impressive 81.4 percent of the vote. In second place, with 7.2 percent of the vote, was “invalid.”

Was Hernandez just fairly popular there?

There were 16,135 voting tables in Honduras; the ten which showed the highest number of votes for Hernandez were all located in El Paraíso. The 81.4 percent that went to the National Party was over 11 percentage points higher than in any other city in the entire country.

Where oh where...

...have I heard this before?

Oh yeah, Nicaragua 2008.

I'm sure the US somehow meddled to keep Mel out!

A new article in PanAmPost

A new article in PanAmPost offers a bit more in the way of analysis of the Honduran election results.

The truly remarkable result of this election, though, is the end of two-party dominance in a country where it prevailed for more than 30 years. This came after the fragmentation of one of the traditional parties, the Partido Liberal de Honduras. With the newly created LIBRE party offshoot in second place, the ideological spectrum of options available to the electorate amplified, and political forces reconfigured.

The one thing (one important

The one thing (one important one, anyway) not mentioned in the stories like this one from Real News Network, is that the Libre Party (Zelaya’s wife), by separating from the Liberals (Zelaya’s party) and failing to reconcile with them in any fashion, merely divided the anti-National party vote. On top of this, neither Libre nor Liberal parties reached out to the countless supporters of journalist Nasralla’s newly formed Anti-Corruption political party. If just 2 of these 3 groups had reconciled or united, they would have buried the ruling party (Lobo’s rule was a massive failure by any measure, and now his protégé is set to take office). The last number tallies I saw do reveal how damaging the split was - even more so than in previous elections, due to the popularity of Nasralla: Nationalists=745,000; Libre=630,000; Liberals=450,000; Anti-Corruption=350,000; the other 4-5 parties combined, maybe 15,000. There are irregularities but even those acknowledged as serious seem to have bearing on a small number of voters. A bigger issue is why they were able to count 50-55% of the votes in 12 hours and project a Nationalist win, then 30-40 hours later they countess only another 10-15% of the votes. The process is far from perfect but Libre needed to assume that from the outset and do something, anything, to unite with or attract other anti-Nationalist voters.

Maybe next time

I am assuming Honduras does not have a must get percentage. Numbers like that in Nicaragua would require a runoff.

It is too bad the opposition didn't get together but these numbers are likely to cause some joining in the future. It is clear the only way the Nationalists won was with a divided opposition. Now that the opposition can see the numbers and, in particular, how well both the Libre and Anti-Corruption parties did, I would expect a coalition to be formed. What's really significant is that any two of the three major opposition parties working together would have gained more votes that the Nationalists.

Which is why Daniel wants that out of the constitution

It served its purpose, it was there if he needed it to get in on a second ballot.

Now, he doesn't want anyone else doing the same thing so it will be gone by next time.