Will Post-Chavez Venezuela become a Narcostate?
Submitted by Daddy-YO on Wed, 2013/03/06 - 14:27.
Bits from foreignpolicy.com posted almost a year ago, 11 Apr 2012, by Roger F. Noriega, titled After Chávez, the Narcostate:
"In my estimation, the approaching death of the Venezuelan caudillo could put the country on the path toward a political and social meltdown. The military cadre installed by Chávez in January already is behaving like a de facto regime determined to hold onto power at all costs. And Havana, Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing are moving to protect their interests."
"... Washington should rally Latin American leaders to draw the line against a Syria scenario in the Western Hemisphere."
"Cabello's appointment (Jan 2012) was meant to reassure a powerful cadre of narcomilitares -- Gen. Rangel Silva, Army Gen. Cliver Alcalá, retired intelligence chief Gen. Hugo Carvajal, and half a dozen other senior officers who have been branded drug "kingpins" by the U.S. government. These ruthless men will never surrender power and the impunity that goes with it -- and they have no illusions that elections will confer "legitimacy" on a Venezuelan narco-state . . ."
"Cuba's Fidel and Raúl Castro are desperate to preserve the life-blood of Venezuelan oil that sustains their bankrupt regime. According to a source who was briefed on conversations in Cuba, Raúl has counseled Chávez to prepare to pass power to a "revolutionary junta"; Venezuelans who are suspicious of the Castros expect them to pack the junta with men loyal to Havana. Cabello does not trust the Castros, but with thousands of Cuban intelligence officers and triggermen on the ground in Venezuela, the Castro brothers are a force to be reckoned with."
No mention was made of Nicaragua's dependence on Chávez under Ortega. Maybe payments for all that food Nicaragua ships them will be more upfront now. Nor was anything said about ALBA.
"The Chinese have provided more than $20 billion in quickie loans to Chávez in the last 18 months, which are to be repaid by oil at well below the market price. Most of these funds were paid into Chávez's slush funds before the Chinese knew of his terminal condition."
" ... the Chávez regime has been a reliable customer of more than $13 billion in Russian arms ..."
"Iran is more dependent than ever on its banks and other ventures in Venezuela as a means to launder billions in funds to evade tightening international financial sanctions. Companies associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Qods Force, and illicit nuclear and ballistic missile programs have invested millions in infrastructure in shadowy facilities throughout Venezuela. Tehran will struggle to keep its beachhead near U.S. soil, which is vital to its survival strategy in the critical months ahead. ... U.S. intelligence agencies have been virtually blind to the Iranian presence in Venezuela."
He does express some hope for post-Chávez Venezuela.
"Venezuela's military is not a monolith, and Chávez has undermined his own succession strategy by giving the narco-generals such visible and operational roles. The fact that the narco-generals will be more willing to resort to unconstitutional measures and repression to keep power and carry the "narco" label sets them apart from the rank-and-file soldiers and institutionalist generals. The United States military still carries a lot of weight with these men."
I'd guess the Sixth Fleet on alert in the Caribbean would bolster their confidence.
"The Soviet-style succession that corrupt Chavistas and their Cuban handlers are trying to impose on the Venezuelan people is anything but a done deal. There is room and time for friends of democracy to play a constructive role."
Numbers Don't Lie
The back pages of the Economist tell the Venezuelan story in vivid detail.
Shortages, 30% inflation, negative trade balance even with all of that oil ?
Book you should check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics
Rebecca Brown
Biggest narco-using states are Scotland and the US
And the Scottish market isn't that big.
One of the things that tends to get brain stem jerks in the US, utterly bypassing thinking, is to call someone a narco supporter.
But the reporter who found the links between CIA cocaine smuggling and sales in urban America was hounded out of his job.
Somewhat like the belief in among the dimmer right wingers that the last Nicaraguan election was any more corrupt that the election that put Sra. Chamorro in office.
Rebecca Brown
doomed?
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/05/18/not-even-large-oil...
"Maybe, just once, someone will call me 'sir' without adding, 'you're making a scene." -Homer J. Simpson
US corporate plans
An article in The Activist Post offers a look at the plans of US big business to correct what has happened in Venezuela. The article details the plans of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) to take action.
On their list are electoral changes to ensure a transparent vote count. That should be a dead giveaway and there isn't anyone who questions the actual voting process in Venezuela.
the actual voting process in Venezuela
But, this is what there is and has been ("...there isn't anyone who questions the actual voting process in Venezuela..."), people questioning the particulars of voting in Venezuela: Venezuela’s mixed-member proportional representation per the general legislature elections and redistricting packages to revert power to poor rural areas is pure gerrymandering. One doesn't need to mess with rigging individual votes if the system itself is unfair and essentially rigged specifically to benefit one's supporters.
Like the Republican redistricting?
Also, US journalists don't get thrown in the slammer that often, but revealing classified information can be problematic. The guy who blew the whistle on CIA involvement in the drug trade had lots of problems afterward. No need to throw people in jail when a few phone calls can get the guy fired, demoted, etc. One CIA chief said that US reporters were cheaper than high class hookers.
If you've decided that certain groups shouldn't vote because of reasons that seem good to you (any side here), then, yeah, barriers to the voting of people who you don't expect to vote as you'd like seem to show up. I grew up in the South which was a de facto and often a de jure police state for black Americans. A lot of it is still a one party system. Urban voters are considered problematic since they tend to be either black and/or educated (one guy I knew slightly was described by his sentencing judge as "an overeducated revolutionary").
The US needs to ask itself why so many of its people, including a fairly sizeable chunk of its middle class, feels a greater need to drug up than the average in Mexico, which apparently has fewer restrictions on drugs, but lower consumption of them (1% for pot compared to the US's quarter of the population having at least tried it).
All systems that last more than ten years work for some fraction of the population, sometimes very well but at the expense of other parts of the population.
Rebecca Brown
Noriega is a Long-Time Foe of Latin American Independence.
Noreiga's assertions about "narco state" in Venezuela are pure fantastical nonsense, calculated no doubt to justify his hope that the U.S., under the flag of fighting drugs, will U.S. take strong actions to return Venezuela to its pre-Chavez, pre-revolutionary past as a U.S. puppet state. of the U.S.
Noriega was a confederate of former U.S. ambassador to Honduras, John Negroponte, who, from his embassy in Honduras, was the point man for directing the U.S.'s attempts to destroy the Sandinista government through ithe creation and funding of the Contra forces which caused such suffering in Nicaragua. in the 1980's. Now those same reactionary actors would love to destroy the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela and elsewhere today."
A summary of his actions in Nicaragua can be seen at http://www.rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/noriega_roger:
Track Record Noriega has been involved in Latin American policy since the 1980s, when he worked in the Ronald Reagan administration’s U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). According to the Texas Observer, while at USAID Noriega oversaw "non-lethal aid" to the Contras, which led to uncomfortable questions about Noriega's work during investigations into the Iran-Contra scandal.[8]
Reported the Observer: "In subsequent investigations, unseemly associations surfaced. For example, a Miami-based money launderer with ties to the Medellin cartel testified to a Senate committee that he personally had cleaned up $230,000 by cycling it through a bank account used for non-lethal Contra aid. While at USAID, Roger [Noriega] also steered a $750,000 grant to the Thomas A. Dooley Foundation, headed by Verne Chaney, a close colleague of retired General John Singlaub, who, in turn, helped Oliver North run the illegal arms supply network to the Contras during the U.S. aid cutoff. For his part, Chaney did a survey of the Contras' medical needs in 1985 together with Rob Owen, who was subsequently nailed as Ollie North's bag man. When thisall blew up into televised hearings, special prosecutors, threatened indictments, and jail terms, Noriega found it convenient to lie low."[9]
Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Noriega) reports on Noriega's fascist actions to demolish the elected Aristide government in Hait:.
" In 2000, Noriega played a key role in engineering the fall of Haiti's elected President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Noriega was a vocal critic of the Aristide government and circulated demands for the removal of Aristide at the OAS. After the US helped to overthrow him, Noriega quickly applauded the ascension of Prime Minister Gerard Latortue, who came to office despite the fact that he was living in Florida at the time and was therefore ineligible for the presidency under Haitian constitutional law. Amid rampant violence and chaos, Noriega celebrated the overthrow of Haiti's government, stating to Congress: "Now we can make a new beginning in helping Haiti to build a democracy that respects the rule of law and protects the human rights of its citizens." 7
At the time of Posada Carriles' arrest in the U.S. in 2005, Noriega stated that the charges against Mr. Posada, whose extradition has long been sought by Venezuela, "may be a completely manufactured issue," and that Posada "might not have been in the United States."[2]
Noriega was a major force behind the Bush Administration’s policy of aggression towards Cuba and Venezuela, and also helped end the presidency of Jean-Bertrand Aristide of Haiti by the 2004 Haitian coup d'état.[3]
In 1996, Noriega co-authored the Helms-Burton law which tightened the 40-year-old embargo on Cuba.[4]
In April 2002, Noriega publicly clashed with United States Secretary of State Colin Powell when he applauded the short-lived coup d’état in Venezuela, forcing Powell to distance himself from Noriega’s comments after Hugo Chávez was returned to power.8
Noriega resigned from the State Department in 2005 to join the private sector.[5] In 2009, he was hired as a U.S. lobbyist by the coup government in Honduras that overthrew elected President Manuel Zelaya. [6] "
Noriega is bathed in blood and wants to shed more in Venezuela.
Wikipedia and Counterpunch
Wikipedia and Counterpunch for starters.
Also, this link will take you to a bunch of TRNN videos about Chávez and Venezuela.
the messenger
Yes, it would appear the author's motives may be impeachable.
The whole narco-perspective may be to get knee-jerk reactions from the Washington power base he plays to, or maybe the money's too real for those in power there to ignore, since incompetent refinery operators blew up a plant or two, taking out a bunch of citizens. And the revolution-farmers seem unable to feed the people. And crime in Caracas is the worst in the Americas. Are water & electricity still being rationed?
I await your attack against the content fyl. There are numerous players who have stakes in how the chips fall in Venezuela in the next few months. Noriega mentions several. He didn't go into how Chávez continued to sell petroleum to the USA despite all his anti-American rhetoric. Nor as to whether Exxon & the other corporation evicted from Venezuela will try to buy back in.
Little question, Venezuela's the place to watch now. And we must ask, will Nicaragua-Ortega become a domino post-Chávez?