Should I ... in Nicaragua Now?

Mostly because of the post-election "problems" a lot of people seem to be wondering if they should visit Nicaragua, invest in Nicaragua, ... Answers are going to vary all over the map, of course, but here is mine. If you live here, chip in with yours. If you don't live here, listen and see what you can learn.

First, I have lived in Estelí, Nicaragua for about five years. My wife is Nicaraguan and most of my friends are Nicaraguan. Estelí is a very pro-FSLN town so, not surprisingly, lots of the people I know are Sandinista. Not bragging—just establishing where I am coming from.

Life in Estelí

The best description is is "business as usual". I was here for the 2004 local elections, the 2006 presidential election and the 2008 local elections. Each time, the FSLN won, there was a lot of excitement because the majority supported what happened and things just went back to normal.

Now, people here are a lot more interested in and involved in politics than anywhere I have ever lived. In addition, the primary source of information is not TV and newspapers. Instead, it is sound trucks, word-of-mouth, rallies and such. So, you see a lot more of the politics even if you are not political.

What About Managua?

I don't live in Managua and would not live in Managua. I also wouldn't live in Los Angeles (where I grew up), Washington, D.C., Chicago, Miami, ... When I lived in Costa Rica, I would avoid trips to San José for weeks even though it was only a 30 minute trip.

That said, if you take what I said about people being more politically active and how they are from the Estelí information, it is no surprise that a city many times the size of Estelí and also the nation's capital is going to have a bit more in the way of "activities". Then, there are more ingredients:

1. Managua is not an "FSLN town". There are lots of Sandinistas there but, overall, there is a much larger political mix than in Estelí. There are clearly a lot more people in terms of numbers that are not FSLN supporters in Managua than any other area.
2. Many people believe the election was "adjusted" so that the FSLN candidate beat the PLC candidate in the election.
3. The MRS is calling for protests. While MRS supporters are a minority, a minority can stir up a lot of trouble. They are specifically calling Ortega a dictator and doing their best to connect his image with that of the Somozas as far as consolidating control.
4. Rising prices (do to world economics and clearly no fault of the current government) are adding to unrest.

To put this "unrest" into perspective, I lived in Costa Rica when a new law went into effect requiring annual vehicle inspections. Ticos were not pleased. For a few days roadblocks were set up consisting of burning tires on the main roads into San José. Yes, people in Latin America are willing to publically express their opinions.

Investing Opinion

Was the election fixed? Will Ortega confiscate your property? Is it dangerous to be here? ... There are lots of questions we can ask. Here is some serious opinion.

On the election, I don't know. But, "fixed elections" are not new. On the "just plain corruption" level, the 2004 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections smell pretty bad. And all so many elections (whether it is the U.S. or many Latin American countries) reek of big payoffs. Here, it is pretty easy to trace candidate financing for most to sources outside of Nicaragua. Some may feel fixed vote counts is different from external influence but, in reality, does it matter to an investor? I don't think so. This is, of course, my opinion. Or, more accurately, I think that anyone who believes that "all votes are equal" here, in Mexico, in the U.S., ... is naive.

As for confiscations, this is another case where there is the potential for a gray area but that should just help guide investment, not discourage it. My feeling is that if I own a house, a farm or whatever and "use it" I feel there is zero chance it will get confiscated. By use, the most obvious is living there but renting it would count. On the other hand, if the property is idle, I would change that percentage number. To what, I don't know.

Is it dangerous here? Not really. Sure, there is crime and crime levels will be higher in areas that have more people and, well, more thing things to steal. Will you get assaulted on the street? Well, use common sense. Would you walk through a poor neighborhood in Washington, D.C. with a a gold chain around your neck or a $1000 camera in your hand?

If you are in a rural area, common sense again. If you are an "isolationist" you are likely to have problems. On the other hand, if you know your neighbors it will be the same as rural areas anywhere.

I have talked to a lot of people about Nicaragua, whether they should move here, visit, etc. For some, I have suggested they look at Costa Rica or, as Billy Bob suggested, Ireland because I just don't think they are ready for Nicaragua. That might be you. For example, if you can't deal with many things having no black or white answers you are likely going to be frustrated. But, for me, getting used to that brings you a lot of benefits including being in a beautiful country where you will meet lots of great people and can live relatively inexpensively.