Bolivia After the Recall Vote

After Evo Morales captured over 67% of the vote in the recall election last month, Bolivia has been "exciting". That is, the opposition minority have stepped up there anti-government activities. This same majority/minority division exists in Nicaragua so it is interesting to see what is happening in Bolivia. (Before you ask, the popularity of the presidents is clearly different.)

This Interpress News Service article does a good job of covering the events. While the future is uncertain, it seems likely that "the Morales plan" will continue to evolve.

It is clear that the very large Majority that supports Morales is receiving benefits from the substantially increased government revenues. This makes him stand out from the failed Bolivian presidents that preceded him. It is also interesting to see how a very small diversion of funds can benefit a large segment of the population. For example,

The opposition bloc announced further traffic blockades in five opposition-governed provinces to force the government to agree to the restitution to the provinces of a portion of the natural gas tax -- 49 million dollars -- that the Morales administration has diverted to the payment of a universal pension of 26 dollars a month to people over 60.

The governors (known as prefects in Bolivia) of the lowlands provinces (departments) of Santa Cruz in the east, Beni in the northeast, Pando in the north, and Tarija and Chuquisaca to the south have made this one of the key demands in their opposition to Morales.

In response, the government argues that the funds diverted from the provinces for the universal pension are insignificant compared to the more than two billion dollars that will be transferred to the provincial governments this year, a sum that is double the 952 million dollars transferred in 2005.

The main difference between the two poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere is that Bolivia has natural resources that can be sold to produce foreign exchange. Historically, Bolivia had silver and Nicaragua had gold but those resources are pretty much depleted in both countries. Today, with soaring energy prices, Bolivia is profiting from gas and oil. What is there for Nicaragua?

I think Nicaragua has the potential to profit from this same energy cost increase. Development of both wind and geothermal energy should be able to turn Nicaragua into an energy exporting nation. The question is simply one of how to get there from where Nicaragua is today.