Nicaraguans Decry Ortega’s Performance (Angus Reid)

Submitted by dixietraveller on 30 June, 2008 - 08:28.

June 30, 2008 - (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The majority of people in Nicaragua are dissatisfied with the leadership of Daniel Ortega, according to a poll by CID-Gallup published in La Prensa. 56 per cent of respondents rate their president’s performance as bad or very bad, up 13 points since February.

For the complete article and statistical tables, go to: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view...s_performance/

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Here we go again

Submitted by fyl on 30 June, 2008 - 09:07.
From the poll:
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,260 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
I, for one, would like to actually know what the average Nicaraguan thinks of the current president but I am not going to base any serious conclusions about average Nicaraguans on a poll of those that both have telephones and were around to answer them. I would love to see a poll of 1,260 Nicaraguans that don't have telephones.

I agree, but , , , ,

Submitted by dixietraveller on 30 June, 2008 - 22:03.

Yes, the question of whether telephone polling can be accurate is certainly a valid consideration to keep in mind in evaluating the results. But this isn't the 1936 Literary Digest poll, and if the ubiquitous cell phone is included (i.e., not just land line phones), then the polling method is probably reasonably representative for even Nicaragua (particularly if if you are interested in registered voters and/or most likely to vote respondents).

O quantum est in rebus inane! / A palabras necias, oídos sordos.

I know the answer! The answer lies within the heart of all mankind! The answer is twelve? I think I'm in the wrong building. - Peanuts (Charles M. Schulz)

Not really

Submitted by fyl on 1 July, 2008 - 04:11.

First, anyone with a cédula is a registered voter. In other words, there is no additionl step beyond a required ID that you need to do almost everything here to be a voter.

Now, as for "with any phone", I don't think so. First, there are many populated areas of the country that have no cellular coverage or land lines. For example, La Garnacha, an entire community adjacent to our Geek Ranch project does have electricity but not fixed or cellular coverage.

Another example is when I lived in El Rosario, a bario of Estelí, when I was first here while there were about 10 houses on the block the only telephone was my cell phone. Note that both La Garnacha and El Rosario are very pro-Sandinista and neither is very far from a major city.

Good points

Submitted by dixietraveller on 1 July, 2008 - 08:11.

Good points and you're certainly more familiar with the local factors of cell phone usage than I am. I still suspect, however, that the more impoverished non-cell-phone-users (e.g. who live at La Chureca), like those in poverty elsewhere are going to be less likely to vote. But maybe in Nicaragua the FSLN and MRS have done enough "consciousness raising" among the poor that voter turnout among the poorest elements of society is higher than in other countries.

O quantum est in rebus inane! / A palabras necias, oídos sordos.

I know the answer! The answer lies within the heart of all mankind! The answer is twelve? I think I'm in the wrong building. - Peanuts (Charles M. Schulz)

Not clear

Submitted by fyl on 1 July, 2008 - 08:42.

The details of the 2006 election results seem to have been taken down but this page at least offers population and voter turnout information at the department level.

In a quick scan I see over 75% voter turnout in Madriz wich is clearly not where you find people with money. Unfortunately we can no longer see voter turnout by bario but I would guess La Chureca residents are just as likely to vote as anyone else, possibly more so.

I think this is a combination of candidates (in particular, Ortega in the 2006 election) actually at least giving lip service to the poor and the "cédula is your voter card" registration process. All in all, it is just easier to get involved if the registration step is eliminated.

Good reason to get money Tony Solo

Submitted by michalina on 30 June, 2008 - 09:18.

... is to write another article in Nicaragua newspaper, give them advise.

I would too

Submitted by bluewater on 30 June, 2008 - 09:17.

I think it would reflect a growing discontent due to the inability of working people to feed their families and the overt politicization of public resources. I do not agree with you on the result, but historically this pollster has served as a gun for hire to the highest bidder.

Give me an answer

Submitted by michalina on 30 June, 2008 - 09:03.

President D. Ortega falling rates is a fault of U.S.A. goverment?. Is this correct omnipotent Tony Solo?