Is Ortega 2.0 Becoming Ortega 1 Again?

Submitted by fyl on 19 September, 2007 - 07:14.
Peronet asks this question in his blog with a bad link to the Wall Street Journal (which is now WSJ 2.0 now that it joined the ranks of FOX News et al). I searched the WSJ for both Ortega and Nicaragua and found nothing recent other than a lot of info on hurricane Felix. So, armed with no external news source, I think this is still a good question. In fact, it may be a better question for us--that is, people who live here--rather than for an external source.

I think there is a lot more to the picture than exactly what Ortega is doing (or not doing). Here are some areas for thought.

What can Ortega do?

Ortega 1 had:
  • A war to blame things on and the US blockade (personally, I think these are pretty good excuses for a lot of things but, unless the US decides to play that game again, he won't have those excuses)
  • The Soviet union to help
  • Most news (everywhere) controlled by major news sources. (In other words, the Internet was not a serious source of news-worthy information in 1980.)
Today
  • the MRS represents a fair-sized and growning Sandinista voice that has significant disagreements with Ortega policies and politics
  • An established constitution and national assembly which at least the FSLN does not control
  • Lots more "left-leaning" (I hate that expression but we know the intent) countries in Latin America that offer potential models and "friends". I am talking about Brazil, Argentina and Chile primarily because they are big and relatively moderate on the world politics scale.

What does Ortega need to do?

The biggest thing he needs to do is to keep the poor majority believing in him. He rich minority will never belive in him and the middle-class is
  1. Too small to "help". That is, they are not a large percentage of the population.
  2. Like in the US, not interested in having less to help the poor

Without writing a political platform, it seems this means:

  • Get "donations". This includes Venezuelan "buy now, pay later" oil as it frees up current money to help improve corrent conditions.
  • Get basic needs satisfied. Education and health care are clearly the important items on that list.
  • Make it easier for people to get their products to market. (Roads, buses, ...)
  • Discourage people with no "city skills" from moving to the cities.
  • Prevent inflation in the cost of basics (food and shelter)
  • Keep Nicaragua from becoming too dependent on a single source or trading partner

How is he doing?

This is the interesting question. It's not an easy one to answer. I have disagreed with some decisions that have been made but I haven't see any where I would say the decision wasn't sane. The "Corinto fiasco" is one that is pretty messy but there really was no clear "right decision".

So, what has been done and why do you feel it is right or wrong?

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What needs to be understood

Submitted by enperadore on 6 January, 2008 - 14:00.

What needs to be understood is that there is a rift in the FSLN. You are either Ortegista or Sandinista. The MRS is keeping alive the true ideals of the Sandinista, teachings of General Sandino. Ortega is just a wolf in sheeps clothings that always wanted to follow Fidel's idealogy of lifetime dictarorship under a so called communist stance. And yes, Ortega 2.0 is starting to show his downgrade to 1.0 since its impossible for a leopord to shed his spots. Ortega much like Aleman are only looking out for themselves and never want to surrunder their hold on power.

Which is not new

Submitted by fyl on 6 January, 2008 - 14:16.

That same rift existed 30 years ago. Pre-trumph is was put on hold for the good of the revolution. While it started to show in about 1980, US pressure/actions once again caused that rift to be put on hold.

The creation of the MRS in 1994 which included former Vice President Sergio Ramirez and Dora Maria Tellez marked the "let's stop pretending today's FSLN represents what we fought for". While I know a few "Danielistas", I know a lot more people who would like to get back to what they see as Sandinismo.

Based on what I see happening and what the MRS stands for, it seems they have a chance to "rescue the revolution". Let's see if it can happen.

Political Correctness

Submitted by willdufauve on 6 January, 2008 - 12:21.

This is probably a stupid question,

Is there a politically correct view of Nica politics, or the current Nica govt, that US ex-pats/gringos are expected to hold if they want to get along and be accepted in Nica? Butt out and express no opinions?

Political Hostage

Submitted by Alra on 6 January, 2008 - 12:18.

Hola Fyl, your paragraph "...And National Assembly which at least the FSLN does not control.", imo is incorrect, as you know the leader of the political party with most votes in the Assembly, the PLC, is led by a convicted felon in Nica., wanted in Rep.of Panama and Miami,USA is also an FSLN's political hostage.

The Nica's Judicial system that dictates the sentencing and living conditions of the PLC leader, is under the control of the FSLN.

Under these circumstances, the FSLN effectively controls the majority vote in the Nica's Assembly.

Thanks,

Al

That's an option of the PLC

Submitted by fyl on 6 January, 2008 - 13:14.

In theory, that's why the ALN exists. (Gee, guess it is reasonable to say the MRS exists for the same reason.) The FSLN did manage to win with the "Ortega baggage" but the PLC didn't with the "Aleman baggage". I think it is up to the PLC to recognize that being lead by a convicted felon is not the best way to regain your political independence.

Constitution

Submitted by Off2thetropics on 5 January, 2008 - 20:02.

Just as a sidelight to your comment about Ortega and having a "new constitution." We have the same constitution in the US now that we had in 1787. The only difference now is that we have a child in the white house who has done everything imaginable to circumvent that same constitution he swore to uphold seven very long years ago. It might be all well and good that Ortega has one now - just watch to make sure he supports and defends it.

a child would be better....

Submitted by Doug on 6 January, 2008 - 09:57.

what we have is an insane Federalist who is trying to consolidate as much power as he can into his office, the Constitution means nothing to him, he probably did a line item veto on his swearing in.

Nice quote from the shrub at;

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/printer_article_7779.shtml

“Stop throwing the Constitution in my face,” Bush screamed back. “It’s just a goddamned piece of paper!”

-Doug

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate

Doubtful Quote

Submitted by dixietraveller on 6 January, 2008 - 10:32.

FactCheck.org questions the credibility of the quote and does a rather extensive investigation: http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/did_president_bush_call_the_consti...

BTW FactCheck is a good source for checking what candidates of both political parties are saying in the election.

O quantum est in rebus inane! / A palabras necias, oídos sordos.

I know the answer! The answer lies within the heart of all mankind! The answer is twelve? I think I'm in the wrong building. - Charles M. Schulz

could very well be the case...

Submitted by Doug on 6 January, 2008 - 17:37.

after hours of exhaustive research, seems that the original source of the quote may have retracted it.

but as someone's liberal Granny used to say,

"Actions speak louder than words."

-Doug

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate

WSJ article: Oil Politics (Ortega, Chavez and Co.) Correct Link

Submitted by quensey on 19 September, 2007 - 09:28.

Oops. Here's the right link to the WSJ article:

http://www.hacer.org/current/LATAM260.php

WSJ article: Oil Politics (Ortega, Chavez and Co.)

Submitted by quensey on 19 September, 2007 - 09:24.

hey fyl, the link only works for WSJ subscribers.

Here's another link to the same WSJ article: http://www.nicaliving.com/comment/reply/10562#comment-form

The "dictator" line again

Submitted by fyl on 19 September, 2007 - 09:29.

(Note, another bad link). But, as I remeber, this is an editorial that starts with something like "when former dictator Daniel Ortega was elected ..."

When an article starts like that (ignoring that he was elected before, served his term and stepped down after an electoral defeat) I am going to stop reading anyway.

MRS for a second opinion

Submitted by fyl on 19 September, 2007 - 08:36.

While I have FSLN friends that would probably have me hung for this statement, I think the MRS has some good stuff to say. Their web site is http://www.partidomrs.com/ and they also have a newsletter you can subscribe to.

I point this out because:

  1. They are very willing to disagree with current policies of the government. For example, their abortion stance.
  2. They represent a legitimate piece of post-revolutionary Sandinista thinking.
  3. While I know people that will disagree with this, I see them as very nationalist rather than being a sell-out to external interests.

In any case, if you need help disagreeing with Ortega policies, they will give you some good ammunition.