Foreign Policy Balancing Act

Submitted by fyl on Tue, 2007/08/14 - 10:22.

An article in the Chicago Tribune talks about President Ortega's foreign policy balancing act. It is a fairly decent article. While it has a bit of rhetoric, it is good enough for me to abort my project of writing a similar one for NicaLiving.

In his first seven months in power, Ortega has expanded free trade with his country's former enemy, the U.S., while landing high-profile projects funded by Venezuela and Iran. His Sandinista party holds a minority of seats in the National Assembly and has no easy answers to revive one of Latin America's poorest nations, so he has been looking for help anywhere he can get it.

While the article does a fairly good job of talking about the current balancing act, it doesn't get into why the 2007 version of FSLN rule appears to be working better than the 1980s version. It mentions that Ortega says he has changed but there is a lot more than has changed as well.

  1. The cold war is gone. Ortega working with countries such as Iran and Venezuela cannot be labeled as "a communist plot" because there is no monolithic US enemy.
  2. The US government has too many other quagmires to be able to provoke another war in Nicaragua.
  3. Where people get their news has changed. The US-based mainstream corporate media has been dropping in importance as alternative sources (such as here) spring up on the Internet.
  4. World opinion has changed. Other countries are more willing today to promote their nationalism over kissing up to the US government.
  5. It is hard for the US to take "pure" positions when one of its biggest trading partners is China, for example.
  6. The 1980s embargo forced Nicaragua to seek other trading partners. Many of those are still here making US action less important. (This is not to say that a US embargo today would not be a huge problem but less than the 1980s and becoming less every day.)

Direct trade with China, regional trade, ALBA, alliances in the Middle East, ... all make it possible for Nicaragua to try to do what it best nationally. While I don't want Ortega's job (and don't agree with everything he has done), he certainly recognized that balancing is necessary and is working hard to make it happen.

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Ortega the Juggler

Submitted by dirtbag on Tue, 2007/08/14 - 14:17.

It is a whole new world out there. I don't envy any (Honest) Head of State (Committed) to the job of trying to raise his (or her) Country's standards for the population so entrenched in poverty and lack of opportunity as Nicaragua. What's in the past..is in the past, however, on top of all Nica problems you are going to see a contraction of Investment from the U.S. (Not that there is a lot anyway-you can't really count real estate developers from the U.S. can you?) We haven't seen the end of the "Subprime Credit effect" wind it's way through the Global system yet. Wait and see what October renewals bring! Whose door would you have Ortega knock on? China, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico? India? I am sure he is looking for as many doors to knock on as he can.

Latin America

Submitted by fyl on Tue, 2007/08/14 - 14:37.

My hoped for result is that Latin America will become more integrated. You see a smattering of products from the region here but there certainly could be more. Here is a short list:

  • Cars -- Ladas are produced in Ecuador and, now, Iranian cars will be build in Venezuela.
  • Heavy vehicles -- produced in Brazil. You do see some Mercedes buses made in Brazil here. Aren't there trucks made there too?
  • Medicine -- You actually see medicine from Mexico, other Central American countries and Spain. There could be more.
  • Food products -- Some from Guatemala and such things as cooking oil from Columbia.
  • Petroleum -- We all know that comes from Venezuela. Hopefully, when the new refinery is done, Nicaragua will have another product for export for the region.

Selling off your land is not sustainable nor is exporting your work force. But, using your land and work force to produce products for export is. In addition, if Nicaragua can get geothermal energy developed, it could be an export product.

China has it over North America

Submitted by arlington on Tue, 2007/08/14 - 14:51.

China has it over North America but, certainly not over latin America when it comes to industrial capability for the region, at least. If it says made in China, it could and should say made in Nicaragua, at least in Nicaragua. Reverse engineer anything manufactured and away you go - even if only for domestic consumption.

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